17 January 2019

Chancellery Auditorium, BNP Paribas Fortis
Rue de la Chancellerie 1 Kanselarijstraat – Brussels
12.00 - 18.00

Being AAA in a tight real estate market?

Apply the AAA rating to your projects: Analyze, Anticipate and Act

10 years without a major crisis. The international real estate market, generally considered cyclical, has never known such a long period of stability. This raises the question of why the market is going through such a long cycle, as no one can imagine the market ceasing to be cyclical at all.

Since the crash of 2008 and its aftermath, the Greek crisis and the crisis of public debt in the Eurozone, we have seen emerging new players around the world: the central banks, especially in the United States and the Eurozone.  To boost economic activity and support growth, central banks have taken over from governments in pursuing expansive monetary policies.  This phase is gradually coming to an end.

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, decreased its key rates to between 0.25 and 0% since 2008, but by the end of 2015 had increased it several times. The European Central Bank, which had coupled the decline in its key rates (2009) with an asset buyback program announced last summer that this program would be closed down progressively.

The question therefore is to know (‘Analyse‘) how a real estate market that has profited for years from the historically low level of the rent of money, with the consequence that capitalization rates are exceptionally low and the values exceptionally high. 

During this exceptionally long cycle, the economic context changed with the introduction of firstly the ‘New Way of Work’ (NWOW) and its impact on the demand for office spaces and secondly the accelerated digitization of the economy which is especially spectacular on the retail business and large retailers. E-commerce means that logistics chains are as short and fast as possible.

We also need to know (Anticipate) how investors will manage the future development of the three real estate markets (offices, retail and logistics).  Should we fear the appearance of ‘black swans’, by definition unpredictable, the Brexit, the financial situation of Italy, the risk of a bond market crash or the impact of the IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standard)? As on the stock market, on the real estate market also ‘trees do not grow to the sky’. Demand exceeds supply, so land prices for example have reached historically high levels.  Those factors as well as the evolution of ‘business models’ imply that developers, investors and occupiers are adapting to a globalized real estate market, with every indication that it is arriving at the end of a cycle. We cannot rule out the combination of rising interest rates, record price levels and slower growth proving an explosive cocktail. Finally, we need to know how investors will act (‘Act’) in a tight and uncharted real estate market whose fundamental trends are unprecedented. They are in any event obliged to act as ‘New kids on the block’, namely, step by step.

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Meet, lead and deal with key people at the center of the real estate capital markets.

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All applications are final upon receipt of payment.
No refunds will be made, but ticket transfer to another individual is possible through January 10th, 2019, after which no transfers will be allowed. Shared registrations are not permitted.